A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
